Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,176$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(275 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,110.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,110.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $87$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(6.83 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $363$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,921$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,270.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,270.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,220$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(194 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,350.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,350.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,730$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,099$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,767.1}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,767.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $219$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{218.7}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(218.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,848$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,880$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(468 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,084.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,084.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $265$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(18.2 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{284.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(284.4\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,615$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,517$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,520.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,520.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $526$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(68.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{515.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(515.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,700$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(396 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(2.51 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 22.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $52,596$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(4.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,711.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(52,711.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,581$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(682 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,373.8}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,373.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,604$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $216,525$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,991.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(226,991.2\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,662$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,868.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(31,868.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $183,862$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $218,268$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,906.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(213,906.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,395$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(3.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,715.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(29,715.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $84,842$ on 2020-05-09
